President-elect Donald J. Trump is returning to the White House for a second term. His party’s control of all three branches of the U.S. federal government will fortify his power.
In addition to the Executive Branch, Republicans will control the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. The previously divided U.S. legislature could not pass key comprehensive federal privacy or AI regulations. In response to the gridlock in legislation during his term, President Joseph Biden enacted Executive Orders such as the 2022 AI Bill of Rights and the 2023 Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of AI. These Executive Orders are certain to be rescinded when Trump takes power on January 20, 2025.
The third branch of the U.S. government is the judiciary. Just months before the election, the Supreme Court granted Trump broad immunity for all “official acts”, substantially freeing him from any accountability in the courts for conduct performed as president.[i]. In 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court also decided a series of cases severely weakening federal agencies’ power to regulate businesses. [ii] Going forward, President Trump’s power will continue to be buttressed by the majority of the U.S. Supreme Court justices, which are Republican appointees.
What will fill the vacuum created by rescinding existing Executive Orders and gutting strong regulatory control by government agencies? President-elect Trump is creating new departments and councils outside of the existing government’s structure. The principles and policies guiding the Trump administration are set forth in a nine-hundred-page policy blueprint called Project 2025’s “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise” – DocumentCloud. (“Project 2025”.)
Newly Established Departments and Private Councils
Trump is creating new departments and councils that will operate outside of the regulatory state and, as such, will not have official government powers and will not require the advice and consent of the Senate for leadership appointments (as is required for federal government agencies.) Nor do the appointees require background checks by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI.) Such outside departments and councils do not have the authority to issue new rules, rescind existing regulations, enforce federal laws, or fire federal employees. But, behind the scenes, these new entities are expected to wield considerable power.
One such new entity is the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Elon Musk of Tesla and Space X, and Vivek Ramaswamy, (founder of Roivant Sciences, a pharmaceutical company) will be the DOGE’s “government efficiency co-czars” charged with the responsibility of auditing the entire federal government. In this new role, Musk has promised to find “at least US$2 trillion in cuts” to the budgets of federal agencies, [iii], which will further diminish the power of federal agencies to regulate businesses or to protect consumers’ rights.
Project 2025
For the second Trump administration, the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation, with the help of over 100 other like-minded groups, established Project 2025. It calls for a sweeping overhaul of the government, with the entire Executive Branch, including all federal agencies, under the complete control of the president.
As a show of support for Project 2025, most, if not all, of Mr. Trump’s cabinet picks so far have had close ties to Project 2025. Project 2025 also includes a database of vetted personnel intended to help the Republican president build loyal rank-and-file staff, as it seeks to reclassify tens of thousands of federal civil service workers as political appointees in order to replace them with people faithful to the president.
Behind the scenes, Project 2025 authors and affiliates drafted over 300 executive orders and agency regulations that can be used to quickly implement the policies the plan advocates implementing once Trump takes office. [iv]
The creation of new private departments and councils, paired with the widespread implementation of Project 2025, could have significant global repercussions across various sectors. Some of President-elect Trump and Project 2025’s key policies are outlined below:
AI and Antitrust
One newly established council is the White House AI and Crypto Council. David Sacks is to be the “czar” of this new council. Mr. Sacks was formerly the Chief Operating Officer for PayPal, and he is a close colleague of Elon Musk.
Sacks advocates that most of what is on the internet should be available for AI to train with under the fair use doctrine. Sacks also advocates for integrating AI technology into warfare and national security systems. Sacks has come out strongly against AI models that display censorship.[v] These topics are consistent with views Trump expressed when campaigning for office and Project 2025.
Mr. Trump also promised unfettered deregulation of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which currently has the power to enforce antitrust laws, as well as policing unfair and deceptive business practices involving violations of AI and privacy.
Existing FTC Commissioner Andrew Ferguson will now chair the FTC. Ferguson is expected to seek a reversal of a majority of FTC policies established under current FTC Chair Lina Khan.
Newly appointed FTC Chair Ferguson is also expected to loosen antitrust enforcement significantly. In a post on social platform X, Ferguson said U.S. businesses will “become stronger and more competitive.” This is consistent with Trump’s campaign promises to “dial back” antitrust enforcement. For example, Trump suggests he would not seek a breakup of Google despite a finding that Google is an unlawful monopoly in the Google search antitrust case issued in August 2024.[vi]
Cybersecurity
Cybersecurity is one of the few areas of government that has strong bipartisan support. The Trump Administration is expected to continue to put a high premium on protecting infrastructures critical to the vitality of the U.S. economy and security.
Trump is, however, a steadfast critic of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). His complaints include accusations that the organization is too zealous in policing misinformation, which this next administration will likely roll back. Project 2025 recommends other significant changes, including narrowing CISA’s focus to incident response, critical infrastructure, and supply chain security. This restructuring could reduce CISA’s ability to address a broad range of cybersecurity threats, potentially impacting critical infrastructure systems’ security.
In place of the CISA, the Office of the National Cyber Director (ONCD) could potentially play a major role in harmonizing cyber measures across the federal government.
Cryptocurrencies
It is a foregone conclusion that under Trump’s presidency, there is a pro-business regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. The new White House A.I. and Crypto Council will oversee the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Trump aims to create a massive stockpile to be used during economic instability to ease the deficit.
U.S. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyoming, has already introduced the Bitcoin Act of 2024, which would establish the strategic Bitcoin Reserve. It would commit the U.S. government to purchasing 1 million Bitcoins over the next five years. Doing so would make the U.S. a “crypto superpower,” as Trump articulated one of his goals during his campaign.[vii]
Defense and Security
Project 2025 emphasizes a “reevaluation” of all international alliances and commitments. This stance could lead to reduced U.S. engagement in global security initiatives, compelling allied nations to increase their defense capabilities and reconsider their security strategies.
Repeated pledges were made during the election campaign that Trump would quickly end the Ukrainian war. Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia is retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg. He shares Trump’s view that NATO membership for the Ukraine will be “off the table.”[viii] The President-elect is steadfast that most of the burden will fall on Europe to support the Ukraine with troops to oversee a cease-fire. [ix]
Environmental Policies
Project 2025 proposes dismantling federal environmental and climate programs, including downsizing the Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) and abolishing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This rollback of environmental regulations could hinder global efforts to combat climate change.
A rollback in environmental regulations would also mean that companies would not be accountable for the massive energy and environmental costs associated with bitcoin mining. This would also benefit AI because it would assist with the massive energy output required for running and cooling data centers that AI requires to operate.
Human Rights and Social Policies
Project 2025 includes policies that could further restrict reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ protections. The adoption of such measures might potentially embolden other countries to implement similar restrictions, thereby affecting the global human rights landscape.
Immigration and deportation
Trump has promised mass deportations, and a mass deportation center is being constructed in Texas to handle millions of undocumented migrants.[x] Trump said the migrants will be returned to their country of origin and if these countries won’t accept the migrants, the U.S. will institute “substantial tariffs” and/or no longer do businesses with these countries.[xi]
The Washington Post reports that Trump’s advisers are also discussing how to strip federal funds from the U.S. sanctuary cities that refuse to take part in mass deportations. In addition to monetary penalties, there are threats to jail state and local officials who block mass deportation efforts. Mike Johnson, the Mayor of Denver, Colorado, said he will station police officers at the county line to stop federal forces from coming in to deport undocumented immigrants. Trump’s incoming Border Czar, Tom Homan, promised to throw Mayor Johnston in jail over such protests.[xii]
Mass deportations will have a seismic economic effect on many states. For example, in California, such mass deportations will inflict billions of dollars in damages across a wide range of industries, including small business, agriculture, construction, childcare, and tech. More than 10 million, or 27%, of California’s population is foreign-born. Roughly a fifth of those are undocumented. Undocumented immigrants contribute not just their labor, they also pay taxes. In 2022, according to a study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, they paid US$8.5 billion in local and state taxes in California. Mass deportations would lead to lost sales, property, and income taxes paid by those immigrants and have a ripple effect across the country’s economy.[xiii]
Privacy
Privacy and surveillance issues continue to be a priority to Americans, given existing state privacy statutes and because of the criminalization of abortion in several U.S. states.
At the federal level, it is highly unlikely that the pending American Privacy Rights Act (APRA) will be enacted because this bipartisan draft legislation would establish a national consumer data privacy standard and enable the FTC to enforce it. APRA is likely to be replaced with a weaker, more industry-friendly bill with less bipartisan support that is either enforced by a gutted FTC that has little enforcement power or by a different agency.
Social Media and Foreign Technologies
President-elect Donald Trump nominated Brendan Carr as the next Federal Communications Commission Chair (FCC) chair. In the name of freedom of speech, the Trump administration threatens to impose “transparency rules” on social platforms, placing the burden of proof on such platforms to justify removing users from their sites because of online improprieties and to disclose the criteria for making such removal decisions.
Carr authored the section on social media in Project 2025, accusing Big Tech companies of attempting “to drive diverse political viewpoints from the digital town square” and supporting legislation that would eliminate the immunities granted to social media platforms by Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 (“Section 230”). Section 230 protects companies from being legally held responsible for user-generated content on their sites. Project 2025 advocates for “anti-discrimination” policies that “prohibit discrimination against core political viewpoints.”[xiv] Carr’s attack on content moderation is at odds with Supreme Court precedent. Earlier in 2024, the Court affirmed that the First Amendment squarely protects content moderation.[xv]
Project 2025 also advocates banning all Chinese social media apps such as TikTok and WeChat, which allegedly pose significant national security risks and expose American consumers to data and identity theft.
In 2024, Congress passed a law forcing ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, to either sell the service or face a U.S. ban. TikTok, ByteDance, and a handful of users sued to block the law’s enforcement. In December, a panel of federal appeals judges upheld this statute in a ruling. This ruling would force ByteDance to cease operations in the United States no later than January 19, 2025. ByteDance has asked for a stay of execution pending review by the U.S. Supreme Court.
This weakening or even outright reversal of Section 230 aims to hold platforms more accountable for user-generated content. It could potentially lead to increased regulation of online speech and stricter content moderation practices. Also, if the Supreme Court upholds the TikTok ban, this could lead to increased scrutiny and potential bans on some foreign technologies, affecting international tech companies and global digital markets.
Trade and Tariffs
Project 2025 advocates for protectionist trade measures, including substantial tariffs on imports from key partners, which could disrupt global trade dynamics. For example, in addition to the existing 25% tariff on imports from China, Trump now proposes an additional 10% tariff on imports from China.
Trump also announced that when he begins his term, he will implement 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada unless these countries control the flow of illegal drugs and illegal immigrants. These proposed tariffs undermine the key role of trade and investment across North America underpinned by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is an agreement Trump negotiated during his first term in office. USMCA is up for review in 2026, and it is possible that these tariffs are part of a broader negotiation strategy. Imports from Mexico and Canada are the United States’ first and third largest sources of imports, respectively, worth over US$900 billion in 2023, and over 4.5 million U.S. jobs rely on this trade.[xvi] This analysis does not even consider additional costs should Mexico or Canada retaliate, which Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has already threatened.
Trump is also threatening to impose up to a 20% across-the-border tariff on all US$3 trillions worth of U.S. imports, including US$575 billions of cars, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and other products from the European Union. This tariff would violate tariff commitments the United States made to the World Trade Organization, although Trump may try to justify it on national security grounds.[xvii]
If such tariffs are implemented, the costs may be economically and politically unsustainable for American businesses. However, even if this is a bluff to re-negotiate trade agreements, Trump’s willingness to ignore U.S. existing commitments by threatening tariffs also sends a signal globally that governments cannot rely on an agreement with Trump—even one that he negotiated.
Conclusion
How much of Project 2025 can or will be implemented remains to be seen. These proposed policies reflect a shift towards greater deregulation of businesses in general while exerting greater control over technology platforms and an assertive approach to cybersecurity and foreign technology threats, all of which could have far-reaching effects.
The Trump presidency may lead to a more isolationist U.S. foreign policy, with significant implications for global trade, security alliances, climate change efforts, human rights standards, and overall cooperation. The international community may need to adapt to a shifting geopolitical landscape influenced by these policy changes.
The debate over tech related policies is not defined by the outcome of elections alone, with a range of factors—including the influence of Silicon Valley- drive the agenda as well. It remains to be seen how culture war politics and President-elect Trump’s own mercurial preferences will contribute in unforeseen ways to the future of the world’s economy.
[i] All of the Trump Cabinet Picks That Have Ties to Project 2025, Chas Danner , New York Magazine, November 28, 2024, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/trump-cabinet-picks-with-project-2025-ties.html?utm_campaign=feed-part&utm_medium=social_acct&utm_source=chatgpt.com
[ii] Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, 603 U. S. ____ (2024)
[iii] Tracking Elon Musk’s Politics and Power, Justin Hendrix, Tech Policy Press, Nov 26, 2024 https://www.techpolicy.press/tracking-elon-musks-political-activities/
[iv] What is Project 2025 and how is it connected to Trump? Reuters November 26, 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-is-project-2025-how-is-it-connected-trump-2024-11-26
[v] What Trump’s New AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks Means For the Tech Industry Andrew R. Chow, Time Magazine, December 10, 2024 https://time.com/7200518/david-sacks-new-white-house-ai-crypto-czar-trump-administration/
[vi] Trump expected to shift course on antitrust, stop Google breakup, Jody Godoy, Reuters, November 6, 2024 https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-expected-shift-course-antitrust-stop-google-breakup-2024-11-06/
[vii] Here’s How a Trump Presidency Could Affect Cryptocurrency for the Next 4 Years Motley Fool December 01,2024 https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/heres-how-trump-presidency-could-affect-cryptocurrency-next-4-years
[viii] Trump’s deportations could cost California ‘hundreds of billions of dollars.’ Here’s how Levi Sumagaysay, CalMatters November 26, 2024, https://calmatters.org/economy/2024/11/trump-deportations-california-economics/
[ix] Trump to Europe: Overseeing a Ukraine Cease-Fire Would be Your Job. Lawrence Norman, Wall Street Journal December 12, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/trump-ukraine-russia-end-war-plan-8901d78b
[x] Texas is gearing up in a big way for Trump’s mass deportation. November 29, 2024 https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2024/11/29/migrant-deportations-texas-border-homan-abbott/
[xi] Full Transcript of Donald Trump’s 2024 Person of the Year Interview with Time December 12,2024 Time Magazine https://time.com/7201565/person-of-the-year-2024-donald-trump-transcript/
[xii] Trump’s team reportedly looking to punish sanctuary cities that block mass deportation efforts Perry Russom, ABC News, November 27, 2024, https://abc7.com/post/donald-trumps-team-reportedly-preparing-punish-sanctuary-cities-refuse-take-part-mass-deportations/15595792/
[xiii] Trump’s plan for Ukraine comes into focus: NATO off the table and concessions on territory. Gram Slattery Reuters December 4, 2024 https://www.reuters.com/world/trumps-plan-ukraine-comes-into-focus-territorial-concessions-nato-off-table-2024-12-04
[xiv] EU warned to prepare for early Trump tariff action, Doug Palmer, Politico November 15, 2024. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-warned-to-prepare-for-early-donald-trump-tariff-action-us/
[xv] Netchoice v. Paxton, 603 U. S. ____ (2024), Moody v. Netchoice 603 U. S. ____ (2024)
[xvi] Assessing Trump’s proposed 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, Joshua P. Meltzer, Brookings Institute, December 3, 2024, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/assessing-trumps-proposed-25-tariff-on-imports-from-mexico-and-canada/
[xvii] Trump’s deportations could cost California ‘hundreds of billions of dollars.’ Here’s how, Levi Sumagaysay, Cal Matters, November 26, 2024, https://calmatters.org/economy/2024/11/trump-deportations-california-economics/